NHS Resolution :@0.116465:0.056159:0.216477:0.056159:0.216477:0.047246:0.116465:0.047246:0.009566:0.009324:0.006892:0.004864:0.008558:0.007268:0.005576:0.007981:0.003816:0.007766:0.005226:0.003587:0.007981:0.007900:0.003708
Annual report and accounts 2021/22:@0.287764:0.056159:0.513287:0.056159:0.513287:0.047246:0.287764:0.047246:0.009230:0.008142:0.008061:0.008142:0.007215:0.003520:0.005629:0.004958:0.007309:0.008222:0.008236:0.004864:0.004555:0.005011:0.006839:0.007604:0.007725:0.005213:0.006839:0.006422:0.006382:0.008061:0.007806:0.007604:0.004743:0.005697:0.004460:0.006879:0.006973:0.006879:0.006973:0.005038:0.007053:0.007242
CNST IBNR:  reasonable range:@0.096734:0.103397:0.346393:0.103397:0.346393:0.092256:0.096734:0.092256:0.010748:0.013519:0.009421:0.010228:0.006046:0.005324:0.010463:0.013015:0.010664:0.004551:0.004635:0.002989:0.007221:0.009908:0.009741:0.008061:0.011252:0.011084:0.009741:0.011336:0.005206:0.009908:0.006466:0.007305:0.009657:0.010916:0.011168:0.009086
The CNST IBNR provision is the single largest element :@0.095894:0.125246:0.479994:0.125246:0.479994:0.114662:0.095894:0.114662:0.008360:0.008855:0.008344:0.005504:0.009876:0.011710:0.008472:0.008360:0.005919:0.003941:0.008392:0.011088:0.008823:0.006047:0.009062:0.005297:0.008903:0.007307:0.003861:0.006382:0.003861:0.008727:0.008647:0.006461:0.003366:0.005871:0.004866:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006047:0.006461:0.003861:0.008647:0.009062:0.003861:0.007977:0.006047:0.003861:0.007897:0.005377:0.009158:0.008153:0.006765:0.005153:0.005632:0.008344:0.003669:0.008344:0.013737:0.008344:0.009030:0.005409:0.004371
within the total provision.  Changes to the assumptions :@0.095558:0.140628:0.490890:0.140628:0.490890:0.130044:0.095558:0.130044:0.011535:0.004084:0.005409:0.009285:0.003861:0.009317:0.006047:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.005632:0.005201:0.009062:0.005201:0.007897:0.003861:0.006637:0.009062:0.005377:0.008982:0.007387:0.003861:0.006461:0.003861:0.008903:0.008823:0.003462:0.004371:0.002409:0.009876:0.009269:0.008312:0.009030:0.009700:0.008567:0.006765:0.005409:0.005409:0.009126:0.005201:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.005632:0.008121:0.006765:0.006765:0.008743:0.013737:0.009381:0.005185:0.003861:0.009349:0.009030:0.006557:0.004371
underpinning this element have the greatest potential :@0.096734:0.156009:0.483642:0.156009:0.483642:0.145425:0.096734:0.145425:0.009030:0.008775:0.009397:0.008153:0.005552:0.009381:0.003622:0.009030:0.008855:0.003861:0.009030:0.009190:0.006047:0.005409:0.008775:0.003861:0.006557:0.005632:0.008344:0.003669:0.008344:0.013737:0.008344:0.009030:0.005409:0.006015:0.008727:0.007722:0.007387:0.007977:0.005712:0.005409:0.009030:0.008073:0.005712:0.009397:0.005552:0.008344:0.007945:0.005409:0.008344:0.006477:0.005409:0.005935:0.009062:0.009062:0.005201:0.008153:0.008727:0.005409:0.003654:0.007802:0.003861:0.004371
to affect the estimate of the total  provision.:@0.095894:0.171688:0.405663:0.171688:0.405663:0.161103:0.095894:0.161103:0.005121:0.008982:0.005712:0.008121:0.004994:0.005281:0.008344:0.007690:0.005409:0.005249:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.005632:0.008344:0.006765:0.005217:0.003861:0.013737:0.008121:0.005409:0.008344:0.005536:0.009349:0.004754:0.005201:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.005201:0.005201:0.009349:0.005185:0.008121:0.003638:0.004371:0.002425:0.009062:0.005377:0.008982:0.007387:0.003861:0.006382:0.003861:0.008823:0.008727:0.003462
The CNST IBNR provision in the accounts is based on a :@0.095894:0.193663:0.487620:0.193663:0.487620:0.183079:0.095894:0.183079:0.008360:0.008855:0.008344:0.005504:0.009876:0.011710:0.008472:0.008360:0.005919:0.003941:0.008392:0.011088:0.008823:0.006047:0.009062:0.005297:0.008903:0.007307:0.003861:0.006382:0.003861:0.008727:0.008647:0.006461:0.003366:0.007897:0.005712:0.005409:0.009030:0.008073:0.006047:0.008121:0.007371:0.007371:0.009349:0.009030:0.009030:0.005409:0.006765:0.006079:0.003191:0.005712:0.006047:0.008982:0.007642:0.006461:0.007897:0.008903:0.006461:0.008567:0.008392:0.006382:0.006461:0.004371
set of chosen assumptions.  It is possible to have a range :@0.096314:0.209342:0.499320:0.209342:0.499320:0.198758:0.096314:0.198758:0.006557:0.007977:0.005201:0.005297:0.009349:0.004754:0.005632:0.007371:0.008663:0.009158:0.006557:0.008344:0.008695:0.006047:0.008121:0.006765:0.006765:0.008839:0.013737:0.009381:0.005409:0.003861:0.009174:0.009030:0.006589:0.003462:0.004371:0.002824:0.003781:0.004707:0.005632:0.003191:0.005712:0.006047:0.009158:0.008982:0.006557:0.006461:0.003861:0.008903:0.003861:0.007818:0.005201:0.005409:0.009126:0.006047:0.008727:0.007722:0.007387:0.007977:0.006047:0.006892:0.006461:0.005377:0.007897:0.008647:0.009062:0.008057:0.004371
of different results if a different set of assumptions had :@0.096314:0.224724:0.491662:0.224724:0.491662:0.214139:0.096314:0.214139:0.009349:0.004754:0.005297:0.009397:0.003861:0.004994:0.005169:0.008344:0.005552:0.008615:0.009030:0.005409:0.005712:0.005297:0.007977:0.006557:0.008727:0.003861:0.004962:0.006557:0.006047:0.003526:0.004531:0.005632:0.006892:0.006047:0.009397:0.003861:0.004994:0.005169:0.008344:0.005552:0.008615:0.009030:0.005409:0.005297:0.006557:0.007977:0.005201:0.005712:0.009349:0.004754:0.005201:0.008121:0.006765:0.006765:0.009030:0.013737:0.009158:0.005409:0.003861:0.009349:0.008839:0.006765:0.006079:0.008392:0.007467:0.008727:0.004371
been chosen. To illustrate this, a reasonable range is :@0.096734:0.240106:0.470368:0.240106:0.470368:0.229521:0.096734:0.229521:0.008903:0.007802:0.007802:0.008567:0.006382:0.007371:0.008839:0.009349:0.006765:0.008153:0.009030:0.003462:0.006318:0.007467:0.008232:0.005632:0.003861:0.003861:0.003861:0.008743:0.006765:0.005409:0.005297:0.008121:0.005233:0.008153:0.005201:0.005409:0.009030:0.003861:0.006765:0.003462:0.006573:0.006892:0.006382:0.005377:0.008153:0.008121:0.006765:0.009126:0.009030:0.007929:0.009381:0.003861:0.008089:0.006047:0.005377:0.008121:0.008679:0.009158:0.008153:0.006461:0.003111:0.005377:0.004371
shown in the following  material to demonstrate how :@0.096314:0.255488:0.478276:0.255488:0.478276:0.244903:0.096314:0.244903:0.006765:0.009030:0.009349:0.011535:0.009030:0.006685:0.003271:0.007642:0.006047:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.005632:0.004994:0.009349:0.003861:0.003861:0.009349:0.011742:0.003861:0.009030:0.009620:0.004371:0.002521:0.013354:0.007897:0.005409:0.008025:0.005377:0.003861:0.007897:0.003861:0.005967:0.005409:0.009126:0.005632:0.009397:0.008153:0.013737:0.009349:0.009030:0.006589:0.005409:0.005552:0.008121:0.005409:0.008344:0.006461:0.009030:0.009525:0.011535:0.004371
different judgements on the main assumptions, given :@0.096314:0.270869:0.480414:0.270869:0.480414:0.260285:0.096314:0.260285:0.009397:0.004036:0.004994:0.004994:0.008344:0.005552:0.008344:0.009030:0.005409:0.003973:0.003861:0.009030:0.009620:0.009573:0.008567:0.013737:0.008679:0.009030:0.005664:0.006765:0.005409:0.008567:0.008312:0.006047:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006461:0.013098:0.007642:0.003861:0.008488:0.006382:0.008121:0.006573:0.006765:0.009030:0.013737:0.009381:0.005409:0.003861:0.009349:0.009030:0.006765:0.003462:0.006509:0.008903:0.003861:0.007052:0.007897:0.008567:0.004371
the current environment and the same overall approach, :@0.095894:0.286310:0.501325:0.286310:0.501325:0.275725:0.095894:0.275725:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.005632:0.007371:0.009030:0.005552:0.005552:0.008520:0.009030:0.005409:0.005217:0.008344:0.009206:0.007642:0.003861:0.005552:0.009349:0.009030:0.013737:0.008344:0.009030:0.005409:0.005217:0.007802:0.008567:0.008982:0.006047:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006047:0.006765:0.007674:0.013354:0.008057:0.006047:0.008982:0.007307:0.008057:0.005297:0.007722:0.003861:0.003526:0.006461:0.008121:0.009381:0.009381:0.005552:0.009126:0.008121:0.007371:0.008775:0.003462:0.004371
could result in different values for the provision.:@0.096314:0.301988:0.435072:0.301988:0.435072:0.291404:0.096314:0.291404:0.007052:0.008982:0.008727:0.003861:0.008903:0.006382:0.005552:0.007961:0.006765:0.008679:0.003861:0.005121:0.005632:0.003366:0.007897:0.006047:0.009397:0.003861:0.004994:0.005169:0.008344:0.005552:0.008615:0.009030:0.005409:0.004371:0.007897:0.008121:0.003861:0.009030:0.008344:0.006765:0.005361:0.004994:0.009541:0.005552:0.004866:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006461:0.009062:0.005297:0.008982:0.007387:0.003861:0.006382:0.003861:0.008823:0.008727:0.003462
147:@0.931480:0.056159:0.952641:0.056159:0.952641:0.047246:0.931480:0.047246:0.006718:0.006718:0.007725
For this assessment,  a number of assumptions are varied :@0.536905:0.125246:0.941475:0.125246:0.941475:0.114662:0.536905:0.114662:0.007387:0.008727:0.005201:0.004866:0.005409:0.008695:0.003861:0.006557:0.005712:0.008121:0.006573:0.006765:0.008344:0.006765:0.006765:0.013737:0.008169:0.009030:0.005409:0.003287:0.004371:0.002521:0.006892:0.006382:0.009030:0.009030:0.013737:0.009094:0.008344:0.005552:0.005329:0.009349:0.004994:0.005393:0.008121:0.006765:0.006765:0.009030:0.013737:0.009158:0.005409:0.003861:0.009349:0.008839:0.006765:0.005664:0.007802:0.005297:0.007897:0.004866:0.007387:0.007897:0.005377:0.003861:0.007897:0.009062:0.004371
together but the variations are limited to those that could :@0.536065:0.140628:0.950702:0.140628:0.950702:0.130044:0.536065:0.130044:0.005409:0.009349:0.009397:0.008344:0.005616:0.009030:0.008520:0.005552:0.005696:0.009381:0.008679:0.005409:0.004754:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.005201:0.007642:0.008121:0.005552:0.003861:0.008121:0.005409:0.003861:0.009349:0.009030:0.006765:0.005680:0.007722:0.005297:0.007897:0.006461:0.003861:0.003526:0.013178:0.003861:0.004962:0.007977:0.008982:0.006047:0.005121:0.008982:0.005201:0.005409:0.009030:0.009158:0.006765:0.008344:0.005297:0.005409:0.009365:0.008312:0.005409:0.005345:0.007052:0.008823:0.008567:0.003861:0.008727:0.004371
have reasonably been chosen  based on the same analysis :@0.536905:0.156009:0.947952:0.156009:0.947952:0.145425:0.536905:0.145425:0.008823:0.007897:0.007467:0.008057:0.006047:0.005377:0.008344:0.007945:0.006765:0.009349:0.008823:0.008121:0.009174:0.003861:0.007722:0.005456:0.008903:0.007802:0.007802:0.008567:0.006461:0.007371:0.008663:0.009158:0.006557:0.008344:0.008695:0.004371:0.002425:0.008982:0.007642:0.006461:0.007897:0.008903:0.006461:0.008567:0.008392:0.006047:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.005632:0.006765:0.007850:0.013513:0.008153:0.005632:0.007897:0.008727:0.007897:0.003861:0.007483:0.006557:0.003861:0.006557:0.004371
of past data.  Changes in  individual assumptions may have :@0.536485:0.171688:0.953579:0.171688:0.953579:0.161103:0.536485:0.161103:0.009349:0.004754:0.006047:0.009062:0.007802:0.006557:0.005201:0.005201:0.009397:0.008121:0.005233:0.008121:0.003462:0.004371:0.002441:0.009876:0.009269:0.008312:0.009030:0.009700:0.008567:0.006765:0.006174:0.003271:0.007642:0.004371:0.002425:0.003861:0.008567:0.009062:0.003861:0.007307:0.003861:0.009078:0.008823:0.007897:0.003861:0.006382:0.008121:0.006765:0.006765:0.008743:0.013737:0.009381:0.005185:0.003861:0.009349:0.009030:0.006557:0.006047:0.013513:0.007897:0.007722:0.005552:0.008647:0.007642:0.007227:0.007897:0.004371
a greater or smaller impact on the provisions estimate.:@0.536485:0.187070:0.922276:0.187070:0.922276:0.176485:0.536485:0.176485:0.006797:0.006047:0.009397:0.005552:0.008137:0.008121:0.005409:0.008344:0.005552:0.005568:0.008823:0.005297:0.005201:0.006765:0.013465:0.008121:0.003861:0.003638:0.008344:0.005345:0.006047:0.003861:0.013513:0.009158:0.008121:0.007371:0.005169:0.005632:0.008567:0.008392:0.006047:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006047:0.009158:0.005552:0.008982:0.007387:0.003861:0.006382:0.003861:0.008823:0.008727:0.006557:0.005632:0.008153:0.006765:0.005409:0.003606:0.013737:0.007929:0.005409:0.008105:0.003462
Although it should  be noted that this in  itself does not :@0.535645:0.209342:0.928967:0.209342:0.928967:0.198758:0.535645:0.198758:0.010291:0.004068:0.005409:0.009206:0.009573:0.009030:0.009700:0.009238:0.006461:0.003526:0.004962:0.005201:0.006557:0.008727:0.008982:0.008823:0.003861:0.008982:0.004371:0.002521:0.008567:0.007562:0.006047:0.008727:0.008982:0.005121:0.008057:0.008982:0.006047:0.005409:0.009365:0.008312:0.005409:0.005345:0.005409:0.008775:0.003861:0.006557:0.006047:0.003271:0.007642:0.004371:0.002425:0.003861:0.005121:0.006765:0.007929:0.003861:0.004707:0.005297:0.009158:0.009062:0.008153:0.006765:0.005584:0.008727:0.008982:0.005201:0.004371
reflect the potential uncertainty in the assumptions :@0.536905:0.224724:0.904014:0.224724:0.904014:0.214139:0.536905:0.214139:0.005552:0.008137:0.004994:0.003861:0.008344:0.007371:0.005233:0.004866:0.005409:0.009030:0.008073:0.006047:0.009381:0.009174:0.005409:0.008105:0.008823:0.005409:0.003861:0.007770:0.003861:0.006382:0.009030:0.009030:0.007546:0.008344:0.005552:0.005409:0.008121:0.003861:0.009269:0.005409:0.007722:0.005680:0.003271:0.007642:0.006047:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006047:0.008121:0.006414:0.006765:0.008855:0.013737:0.009190:0.005409:0.003654:0.009349:0.009030:0.006557:0.004371
underpinning the provision as future experience may :@0.536905:0.240106:0.916091:0.240106:0.916091:0.229521:0.536905:0.229521:0.009030:0.008775:0.009397:0.008153:0.005552:0.009381:0.003622:0.009030:0.008855:0.003861:0.009030:0.009190:0.006047:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006461:0.008823:0.005201:0.008903:0.007307:0.003861:0.006302:0.003861:0.008727:0.008647:0.006461:0.007722:0.006382:0.005201:0.004994:0.009030:0.005409:0.009285:0.005552:0.008344:0.005760:0.008344:0.007323:0.009381:0.008344:0.005552:0.003861:0.008073:0.009030:0.007371:0.008121:0.006461:0.013098:0.007722:0.007387:0.004371
differ to the past, changes may occur in the claims :@0.536485:0.255488:0.900483:0.255488:0.900483:0.244903:0.536485:0.244903:0.009397:0.003861:0.004994:0.004994:0.008344:0.005552:0.005185:0.005409:0.009126:0.004786:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006461:0.009158:0.007897:0.006765:0.005073:0.003462:0.006366:0.007371:0.009030:0.008121:0.009030:0.009397:0.008344:0.006765:0.006015:0.013354:0.007802:0.007467:0.005201:0.009349:0.007371:0.007371:0.009030:0.005552:0.005664:0.003271:0.007642:0.006047:0.005409:0.009030:0.008073:0.005712:0.007132:0.003861:0.007818:0.003861:0.013354:0.006765:0.004371
and  legal environment, and the modelling approach :@0.536485:0.270869:0.910550:0.270869:0.910550:0.260285:0.536485:0.260285:0.007802:0.008567:0.008982:0.004371:0.002521:0.003526:0.007802:0.008823:0.007642:0.003606:0.006461:0.008344:0.009206:0.007642:0.003861:0.005552:0.009349:0.009030:0.013737:0.008520:0.009030:0.005409:0.003462:0.006446:0.007802:0.008567:0.008982:0.005632:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006461:0.013354:0.009062:0.009158:0.008057:0.003861:0.003861:0.003622:0.008823:0.009158:0.006047:0.008121:0.009014:0.009158:0.005377:0.009062:0.008121:0.007084:0.009030:0.004371
may not be a perfect representation of real  life.:@0.536905:0.286310:0.871977:0.286310:0.871977:0.275725:0.536905:0.275725:0.013513:0.007897:0.007722:0.005456:0.008823:0.008982:0.005201:0.005632:0.008823:0.007722:0.005632:0.006892:0.006461:0.009381:0.008344:0.005552:0.005185:0.008344:0.007371:0.005409:0.005584:0.005552:0.008137:0.009381:0.005313:0.008344:0.006525:0.008344:0.008695:0.005409:0.007865:0.005409:0.003654:0.009349:0.008791:0.006461:0.009349:0.004754:0.006047:0.004962:0.007467:0.007387:0.003526:0.004371:0.002521:0.003861:0.003526:0.004707:0.007977:0.003462
IBNR reasonable range :@0.103619:0.341727:0.281569:0.341727:0.281569:0.330586:0.103619:0.330586:0.004702:0.009741:0.011924:0.009908:0.004635:0.006684:0.008750:0.008733:0.007221:0.010076:0.009908:0.008733:0.010076:0.004770:0.008666:0.005206:0.006466:0.008649:0.009741:0.009992:0.008733:0.004635
Value :@0.615921:0.341727:0.663717:0.341727:0.663717:0.330586:0.615921:0.330586:0.010916:0.008817:0.004770:0.009841:0.008817:0.004635
Difference to accounts estimate:@0.703837:0.341727:0.944764:0.341727:0.944764:0.330586:0.703837:0.330586:0.011756:0.004770:0.006063:0.006214:0.008733:0.006382:0.008817:0.009741:0.007725:0.008733:0.004450:0.006130:0.009573:0.005290:0.008565:0.007641:0.007641:0.009741:0.009657:0.009657:0.006214:0.006970:0.004870:0.008649:0.007137:0.006298:0.004770:0.014628:0.008733:0.006298:0.009086
Baseline CNST IBNR :@0.103955:0.365364:0.253657:0.365364:0.253657:0.354223:0.103955:0.354223:0.009623:0.008548:0.007121:0.008783:0.004064:0.004064:0.009505:0.008783:0.005257:0.009908:0.012008:0.008649:0.008481:0.005290:0.004199:0.009237:0.011924:0.009657:0.004602
£62.0 billion:@0.567890:0.365364:0.658023:0.365364:0.658023:0.354223:0.567890:0.354223:0.009052:0.008834:0.009052:0.003644:0.008884:0.005710:0.009875:0.003812:0.004064:0.004064:0.003795:0.009841:0.009505
Reasonable upper range :@0.103955:0.394762:0.291662:0.394762:0.291662:0.383620:0.103955:0.383620:0.010043:0.008783:0.008548:0.007121:0.009841:0.009505:0.008548:0.009875:0.004064:0.008783:0.005576:0.009741:0.010076:0.009875:0.009102:0.005844:0.005408:0.005844:0.008548:0.009505:0.009690:0.008783:0.004602
Reasonable lower range:@0.103955:0.423803:0.284625:0.423803:0.284625:0.412662:0.103955:0.412662:0.010043:0.008783:0.008548:0.007121:0.009841:0.009505:0.008548:0.009875:0.004064:0.008783:0.005995:0.004064:0.010295:0.012428:0.009069:0.006046:0.005290:0.005844:0.008548:0.009505:0.009690:0.008783
£81.1  billion :@0.570745:0.394465:0.663313:0.394465:0.663313:0.383323:0.570745:0.383323:0.007893:0.007893:0.007809:0.003191:0.007893:0.004602:0.003460:0.009875:0.003812:0.004064:0.004064:0.004064:0.009841:0.009505:0.004602
30.7%:@0.889999:0.394465:0.934537:0.394465:0.934537:0.383323:0.889999:0.383323:0.009052:0.009052:0.003644:0.009052:0.013738
£43.8 billion :@0.568293:0.423566:0.663297:0.423566:0.663297:0.412424:0.568293:0.412424:0.009052:0.008834:0.009052:0.003644:0.008884:0.005710:0.009875:0.003812:0.004064:0.004064:0.004064:0.009841:0.009505:0.004602
-29.4%:@0.889898:0.423566:0.940650:0.423566:0.940650:0.412424:0.889898:0.412424:0.006718:0.008817:0.009052:0.003376:0.009052:0.013738
In  prior years, the reasonable range has been derived by :@0.096734:0.466736:0.499692:0.466736:0.499692:0.456152:0.096734:0.456152:0.003526:0.007387:0.004371:0.002425:0.009062:0.005297:0.003861:0.008727:0.005297:0.004371:0.007722:0.008344:0.008360:0.005552:0.006956:0.003462:0.006031:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006047:0.005552:0.008137:0.008121:0.006765:0.009046:0.009030:0.007850:0.009381:0.003638:0.008344:0.005935:0.005377:0.008121:0.008679:0.009397:0.007977:0.006382:0.008727:0.007722:0.006557:0.006047:0.008903:0.007802:0.007802:0.008567:0.006382:0.009062:0.008057:0.005377:0.003861:0.007227:0.008153:0.009062:0.006461:0.008647:0.007052:0.004371
varying the assumptions specified for PPO claims -  as :@0.095558:0.482118:0.479148:0.482118:0.479148:0.471533:0.095558:0.471533:0.007642:0.007897:0.005552:0.007467:0.003861:0.008727:0.009397:0.005472:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006047:0.008121:0.006765:0.006765:0.009030:0.013737:0.009158:0.005409:0.003861:0.009349:0.008839:0.006765:0.005249:0.006765:0.008934:0.008344:0.007020:0.003861:0.004994:0.003654:0.008153:0.009158:0.006047:0.004994:0.009541:0.005552:0.006541:0.007977:0.007977:0.010657:0.006047:0.007371:0.003622:0.007897:0.003861:0.013354:0.006765:0.004659:0.006382:0.002521:0.005201:0.007467:0.006206:0.004371
these are the most material assumptions in the CNST :@0.095894:0.497559:0.478080:0.497559:0.478080:0.486975:0.095894:0.486975:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006765:0.008344:0.005456:0.007802:0.005297:0.007897:0.005201:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006461:0.013354:0.009062:0.006765:0.005073:0.005632:0.013737:0.007754:0.005409:0.008105:0.005552:0.003685:0.008121:0.003638:0.006047:0.008121:0.006765:0.006765:0.009030:0.013737:0.009158:0.005409:0.003861:0.009349:0.008839:0.006765:0.006079:0.003271:0.007642:0.006047:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.005632:0.009876:0.011710:0.008472:0.008360:0.004371
IBNR provisions.  Plowever as per last year, the reasonable :@0.096734:0.512940:0.504606:0.512940:0.504606:0.502355:0.096734:0.502355:0.003941:0.008392:0.011088:0.008823:0.005632:0.009062:0.005377:0.009062:0.007467:0.003861:0.006557:0.003861:0.008982:0.008823:0.006557:0.003462:0.004371:0.003159:0.008647:0.003861:0.009078:0.011168:0.008057:0.007387:0.008153:0.005377:0.005632:0.007722:0.006382:0.005632:0.008982:0.007897:0.005297:0.006047:0.003861:0.007642:0.006382:0.005121:0.004786:0.007467:0.007977:0.007802:0.005297:0.003271:0.006047:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006461:0.005377:0.008153:0.008121:0.006493:0.009062:0.008823:0.007897:0.009158:0.003861:0.008057:0.004371
range presented this year also varies the assumptions :@0.096734:0.528320:0.478840:0.528320:0.478840:0.517736:0.096734:0.517736:0.005377:0.008121:0.008679:0.009158:0.008153:0.006047:0.009158:0.005377:0.008057:0.006765:0.007929:0.008823:0.005201:0.008057:0.009158:0.006047:0.005409:0.008775:0.003861:0.006557:0.004866:0.007722:0.008344:0.008121:0.005552:0.005281:0.008121:0.003638:0.006557:0.009158:0.004786:0.007642:0.008121:0.005552:0.003861:0.008073:0.006765:0.005153:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.005632:0.008121:0.006765:0.006765:0.008743:0.013737:0.009381:0.005185:0.003861:0.009349:0.009030:0.006557:0.004371
specified to allow for Covid-19. The impact of varying :@0.096314:0.543999:0.482887:0.543999:0.482887:0.533415:0.096314:0.533415:0.006557:0.009062:0.008153:0.007052:0.003861:0.004786:0.003861:0.007977:0.009158:0.006047:0.005409:0.009126:0.005632:0.008312:0.003861:0.004036:0.009573:0.011758:0.004786:0.004994:0.009541:0.005552:0.005696:0.010083:0.009349:0.007945:0.003861:0.009652:0.006382:0.008823:0.008312:0.003462:0.006366:0.008360:0.008775:0.008344:0.006350:0.003861:0.013513:0.009158:0.008121:0.007163:0.005409:0.005169:0.009349:0.005185:0.004371:0.007467:0.008121:0.005233:0.007722:0.003622:0.008727:0.009158:0.004371
the Covid-19 assumption was c+£1.4 billion /-£0.9 :@0.095894:0.559381:0.461854:0.559381:0.461854:0.548797:0.095894:0.548797:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.005632:0.009876:0.009349:0.007818:0.003861:0.009397:0.006557:0.008599:0.008599:0.006142:0.008121:0.006573:0.006765:0.008775:0.013513:0.009381:0.005153:0.003861:0.009158:0.009030:0.005504:0.012093:0.008567:0.007132:0.005632:0.007722:0.011423:0.008982:0.008982:0.003462:0.008599:0.006079:0.008903:0.003606:0.003861:0.003526:0.003861:0.008727:0.008647:0.004786:0.006222:0.006717:0.008599:0.008950:0.003462:0.008791:0.004371
billion.  Given the reduced uncertainty around Covid-19 :@0.096734:0.574763:0.492863:0.574763:0.492863:0.564179:0.096734:0.564179:0.009062:0.003861:0.003526:0.003861:0.003526:0.008903:0.008727:0.003271:0.004371:0.002856:0.010753:0.003861:0.007387:0.008344:0.008791:0.006047:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006047:0.005377:0.008057:0.009062:0.008823:0.007132:0.008057:0.009062:0.006461:0.009030:0.009030:0.007546:0.008344:0.005552:0.005409:0.008121:0.003861:0.009269:0.005409:0.007722:0.005345:0.008121:0.005313:0.009158:0.009030:0.008695:0.009397:0.005887:0.009876:0.009349:0.007642:0.003861:0.009397:0.006382:0.008599:0.008599:0.004371
and the materiality of Covid-19 provisions, we have only :@0.096314:0.590204:0.502112:0.590204:0.502112:0.579620:0.096314:0.579620:0.007802:0.008647:0.008982:0.005632:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006382:0.013737:0.008121:0.005409:0.008089:0.005552:0.003861:0.008121:0.003861:0.003861:0.005137:0.007722:0.005121:0.009349:0.005185:0.005297:0.009876:0.009349:0.007642:0.003861:0.009573:0.006382:0.008599:0.008775:0.006461:0.009062:0.005377:0.009062:0.007387:0.003861:0.006557:0.003861:0.008982:0.008823:0.006557:0.003462:0.005600:0.012173:0.008727:0.006461:0.008727:0.007722:0.007387:0.007977:0.006047:0.008903:0.008647:0.003861:0.007227:0.004371
varied the PPO assumptions.  Plence the results above :@0.095558:0.605585:0.476818:0.605585:0.476818:0.595001:0.095558:0.595001:0.007467:0.008121:0.005233:0.003861:0.008057:0.009158:0.006047:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006382:0.008057:0.008153:0.010833:0.005632:0.008121:0.006765:0.006765:0.008839:0.013737:0.009381:0.005409:0.003861:0.009174:0.009030:0.006589:0.003462:0.004371:0.003255:0.008392:0.003606:0.007897:0.008488:0.006972:0.007802:0.005201:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006461:0.005297:0.007977:0.006557:0.008727:0.003861:0.004962:0.006557:0.005632:0.007897:0.009062:0.009158:0.007387:0.008057:0.004371
were achieved  by varying the following assumptions, :@0.095558:0.620966:0.476005:0.620966:0.476005:0.610381:0.095558:0.610381:0.011838:0.008567:0.005552:0.008631:0.005712:0.007897:0.007132:0.009030:0.003654:0.008153:0.007467:0.008344:0.009126:0.004371:0.002521:0.008647:0.007052:0.004371:0.007642:0.008121:0.005313:0.007722:0.003622:0.008823:0.009397:0.005887:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.005632:0.004994:0.009349:0.003861:0.003861:0.009349:0.011742:0.003861:0.009030:0.009620:0.006461:0.008121:0.006765:0.006765:0.008839:0.013737:0.009381:0.005409:0.003861:0.009174:0.009030:0.006589:0.003462:0.004371
all of which could  have reasonably been applied::@0.096314:0.636644:0.441454:0.636644:0.441454:0.626060:0.096314:0.626060:0.007227:0.003446:0.003446:0.006047:0.009349:0.005185:0.004371:0.011838:0.009317:0.003861:0.007642:0.009317:0.006461:0.007132:0.008903:0.008727:0.003861:0.008823:0.004371:0.002521:0.008727:0.007722:0.007387:0.007977:0.006461:0.005552:0.008344:0.007850:0.006765:0.009110:0.009030:0.007770:0.009381:0.003638:0.007722:0.005887:0.008823:0.007802:0.007802:0.008567:0.006461:0.008121:0.008918:0.009158:0.003861:0.003861:0.007977:0.009158:0.003462
•  The estimate for numbers of PPO damages claims :@0.096734:0.658623:0.472777:0.658623:0.472777:0.648039:0.096734:0.648039:0.006477:0.004371:0.007291:0.008360:0.008775:0.008344:0.005600:0.008344:0.006765:0.005409:0.003861:0.013737:0.007897:0.005409:0.008344:0.005058:0.004994:0.009541:0.005552:0.006126:0.009030:0.009030:0.013513:0.009381:0.008169:0.005552:0.006765:0.005058:0.009349:0.005185:0.006047:0.008057:0.008153:0.010833:0.005632:0.009397:0.008121:0.013465:0.008121:0.009397:0.008344:0.006765:0.005744:0.007371:0.003542:0.007802:0.003861:0.013178:0.006557:0.004371
for the incident years 2016/17 onwards;:@0.114869:0.674005:0.400244:0.674005:0.400244:0.663421:0.114869:0.663421:0.004994:0.009541:0.005552:0.004946:0.005409:0.009030:0.008073:0.006461:0.003861:0.009030:0.007100:0.003861:0.009397:0.008344:0.008791:0.005409:0.004675:0.007722:0.008344:0.007945:0.005552:0.006765:0.005233:0.008599:0.008950:0.008599:0.009030:0.006222:0.008982:0.008823:0.006461:0.009349:0.009030:0.011535:0.008376:0.005552:0.009397:0.006972:0.003462
•  The probability of defence for PPO type claims;:@0.096734:0.696217:0.447617:0.696217:0.447617:0.685632:0.096734:0.685632:0.006477:0.004371:0.007291:0.008360:0.008775:0.008344:0.005935:0.009158:0.005377:0.009062:0.009381:0.007754:0.009381:0.003638:0.003861:0.003861:0.005217:0.007722:0.005456:0.009349:0.004754:0.005201:0.009573:0.008344:0.004994:0.008344:0.009030:0.007371:0.008344:0.005297:0.004994:0.009541:0.005552:0.006126:0.008057:0.008057:0.010833:0.005712:0.005201:0.007467:0.009062:0.008057:0.006047:0.007132:0.003861:0.007722:0.003861:0.013354:0.006765:0.003462
•  The average cost for PPO damages;:@0.096734:0.718488:0.366027:0.718488:0.366027:0.707904:0.096734:0.707904:0.006477:0.004371:0.007291:0.008360:0.008775:0.008344:0.005600:0.008121:0.007419:0.008344:0.005345:0.008121:0.009174:0.008344:0.005935:0.007371:0.008918:0.006765:0.005153:0.004866:0.004994:0.009541:0.005552:0.006126:0.008057:0.008153:0.010833:0.006047:0.009397:0.008121:0.013545:0.008121:0.009397:0.008089:0.006765:0.003462
•  PPO damages claims inflation;:@0.096734:0.740700:0.327656:0.740700:0.327656:0.730115:0.096734:0.730115:0.006477:0.004371:0.008472:0.007977:0.007977:0.010657:0.006047:0.009397:0.008121:0.013545:0.008121:0.009397:0.008344:0.006765:0.005249:0.007371:0.003861:0.007834:0.003861:0.013513:0.006765:0.005999:0.003861:0.009030:0.004994:0.003861:0.008121:0.005233:0.003861:0.009349:0.009030:0.003462
•  The creation to settlement lag for PPO claims;:@0.096734:0.762911:0.439528:0.762911:0.439528:0.752327:0.096734:0.752327:0.006477:0.004371:0.007291:0.008360:0.008775:0.008344:0.005600:0.007371:0.005313:0.008153:0.008121:0.005153:0.003861:0.009158:0.009030:0.005919:0.005121:0.008982:0.005632:0.006765:0.008520:0.005409:0.005409:0.003861:0.008344:0.013928:0.008344:0.009030:0.005409:0.005600:0.003526:0.007307:0.008488:0.006047:0.004994:0.009541:0.005552:0.006541:0.007977:0.007977:0.010657:0.006047:0.007371:0.003861:0.007738:0.003861:0.013434:0.006765:0.003462
•  The Covid-19 related claims costs.:@0.096734:0.784885:0.356055:0.784885:0.356055:0.774301:0.096734:0.774301:0.006477:0.004371:0.007291:0.008360:0.008775:0.008344:0.005600:0.009876:0.009349:0.007642:0.003861:0.009573:0.006382:0.008599:0.008775:0.006461:0.005377:0.007977:0.003861:0.007642:0.005121:0.008057:0.009062:0.006047:0.007371:0.003861:0.007834:0.003861:0.013513:0.006765:0.005584:0.007052:0.008903:0.006557:0.005121:0.006557:0.003462
In summary, the provision  in the accounts for CNST :@0.096734:0.807097:0.465055:0.807097:0.465055:0.796513:0.096734:0.796513:0.003526:0.007387:0.006382:0.006765:0.008679:0.013434:0.013354:0.008121:0.005233:0.007722:0.003191:0.006047:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006047:0.009062:0.005297:0.008903:0.007307:0.003861:0.006382:0.003861:0.008727:0.008647:0.004371:0.002521:0.003271:0.007642:0.006047:0.005409:0.009030:0.008073:0.005712:0.008121:0.007371:0.007371:0.009557:0.009030:0.009030:0.005409:0.006765:0.005042:0.004994:0.009541:0.005552:0.005696:0.009652:0.011679:0.008472:0.008073:0.004371
IBNR could have been  reasonably set at a value :@0.096734:0.822538:0.434487:0.822538:0.434487:0.811954:0.096734:0.811954:0.003941:0.008392:0.011088:0.008823:0.005201:0.007132:0.009062:0.008823:0.003861:0.009078:0.006382:0.008823:0.007897:0.007467:0.008057:0.006047:0.008903:0.007977:0.007977:0.008647:0.004371:0.002425:0.005552:0.008344:0.007850:0.006765:0.009110:0.009030:0.007770:0.009381:0.003638:0.007722:0.005121:0.006765:0.008105:0.005409:0.005089:0.008121:0.005153:0.005297:0.006797:0.005712:0.007642:0.007897:0.003861:0.008727:0.008153:0.004371
between £43.8 billion and  £81.1  billion, if the :@0.096734:0.838216:0.428392:0.838216:0.428392:0.827632:0.096734:0.827632:0.009381:0.008344:0.005409:0.011535:0.008153:0.008344:0.009030:0.006733:0.009062:0.009238:0.009158:0.003701:0.009158:0.006461:0.008903:0.003861:0.003446:0.003606:0.003606:0.008727:0.008488:0.006461:0.007802:0.008647:0.008982:0.004371:0.002425:0.008599:0.008599:0.008408:0.003462:0.008599:0.004371:0.004722:0.008982:0.003861:0.003606:0.003861:0.003861:0.008823:0.008823:0.003462:0.006701:0.003861:0.004627:0.004866:0.005409:0.008695:0.008057:0.004371
same data,  method and approach were used, but :@0.096314:0.853598:0.453324:0.853598:0.453324:0.843013:0.096314:0.843013:0.006765:0.007674:0.013354:0.008057:0.006047:0.009397:0.008121:0.005233:0.008121:0.003462:0.004371:0.002856:0.013274:0.008057:0.005201:0.008823:0.009062:0.009158:0.006461:0.007802:0.008567:0.008982:0.006461:0.008121:0.009094:0.009381:0.005313:0.009158:0.008121:0.007371:0.008775:0.005201:0.011918:0.008727:0.005791:0.008647:0.006047:0.009030:0.006509:0.008344:0.009030:0.003462:0.006701:0.008903:0.008567:0.005121:0.004371
different reasonable assumptions were selected :@0.096314:0.868980:0.436811:0.868980:0.436811:0.858395:0.096314:0.858395:0.009397:0.004036:0.004994:0.004994:0.008344:0.005552:0.008344:0.009030:0.005409:0.005648:0.005552:0.008137:0.008121:0.006765:0.009046:0.009030:0.007850:0.009381:0.003638:0.008344:0.005504:0.008121:0.006573:0.006765:0.009030:0.013737:0.009381:0.005409:0.003861:0.009349:0.009030:0.006765:0.004675:0.011758:0.008647:0.005552:0.008727:0.006047:0.006557:0.007977:0.003861:0.007818:0.007132:0.005201:0.007977:0.009062:0.004371
on the basis of the past data. This is compared :@0.096314:0.884362:0.431211:0.884362:0.431211:0.873777:0.096314:0.873777:0.008567:0.008392:0.005632:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006461:0.008823:0.007642:0.006461:0.003606:0.006461:0.005632:0.009349:0.004754:0.005297:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006047:0.009062:0.007722:0.006557:0.005201:0.005712:0.009397:0.008121:0.005233:0.008121:0.003462:0.006302:0.008360:0.008679:0.003861:0.006557:0.006047:0.003191:0.005632:0.005712:0.007371:0.008918:0.013354:0.009062:0.007897:0.005377:0.008153:0.009158:0.004371
to the accounts estimate of £62.0 billion.:@0.095894:0.899742:0.388704:0.899742:0.388704:0.889158:0.095894:0.889158:0.005121:0.008982:0.005297:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006047:0.008121:0.007371:0.007371:0.009349:0.009030:0.009030:0.005409:0.006765:0.005648:0.008344:0.006765:0.005121:0.003861:0.013513:0.008121:0.005233:0.008344:0.005935:0.009349:0.004754:0.005712:0.009062:0.009238:0.009158:0.003701:0.009158:0.006382:0.009062:0.003861:0.003526:0.003861:0.003526:0.008903:0.008727:0.003462
CNST IBNR: sensitivity of provision:@0.536905:0.467989:0.833319:0.467989:0.833319:0.456848:0.536905:0.456848:0.010748:0.013687:0.009741:0.010160:0.006046:0.005324:0.010463:0.013015:0.010664:0.004551:0.006701:0.008229:0.009992:0.011252:0.008145:0.005290:0.007221:0.005290:0.009992:0.005290:0.007221:0.009992:0.005626:0.010832:0.006886:0.006466:0.011084:0.007221:0.010832:0.009573:0.005038:0.007809:0.005038:0.010832:0.010160
 :@0.833907:0.467989:0.838509:0.467989:0.838509:0.456848:0.833907:0.456848:0.004602
to other assumptions:@0.536065:0.483430:0.719288:0.483430:0.719288:0.472289:0.536065:0.472289:0.006886:0.010832:0.006466:0.011084:0.007137:0.011000:0.009825:0.007305:0.006046:0.009908:0.008061:0.007977:0.011000:0.016626:0.011252:0.007137:0.005122:0.011168:0.011000:0.007389
The sensitivity analysis that follows indicates how :@0.536065:0.505220:0.890554:0.505220:0.890554:0.494636:0.536065:0.494636:0.008360:0.008775:0.008344:0.005600:0.006765:0.008344:0.008743:0.006765:0.003654:0.005409:0.003861:0.007435:0.003861:0.005201:0.007722:0.005121:0.008121:0.008759:0.008121:0.003638:0.007722:0.006461:0.003861:0.006557:0.005201:0.005409:0.009365:0.008312:0.005409:0.005010:0.004994:0.009700:0.003861:0.004036:0.009349:0.011902:0.006972:0.006047:0.003861:0.009030:0.009030:0.003861:0.007371:0.007834:0.005409:0.008105:0.006765:0.005999:0.009030:0.009525:0.011535:0.004371
wider variations in  individual assumptions would affect :@0.535645:0.520602:0.931424:0.520602:0.931424:0.510018:0.535645:0.510018:0.011918:0.004036:0.009828:0.008727:0.005791:0.004371:0.007642:0.008392:0.005552:0.003861:0.008121:0.005409:0.003861:0.009349:0.009030:0.006956:0.006047:0.003271:0.007642:0.004371:0.002425:0.003861:0.008727:0.008982:0.003861:0.007227:0.003861:0.008903:0.008727:0.007897:0.003861:0.006302:0.008121:0.006765:0.006765:0.009030:0.013737:0.009158:0.005409:0.003861:0.009349:0.008839:0.006765:0.004914:0.011535:0.009716:0.009030:0.004068:0.009573:0.006461:0.008121:0.004994:0.004994:0.008344:0.007642:0.005409:0.004371
the provision. This demonstrates the extent to which :@0.536065:0.536043:0.914438:0.536043:0.914438:0.525459:0.536065:0.525459:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006461:0.009062:0.005377:0.008982:0.007387:0.003861:0.006461:0.003861:0.008903:0.008823:0.003462:0.006366:0.008360:0.008599:0.003861:0.006557:0.005632:0.009397:0.008153:0.013737:0.009349:0.009030:0.006765:0.005409:0.005552:0.008121:0.005409:0.008344:0.006765:0.005153:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006047:0.008344:0.007323:0.005409:0.008344:0.009030:0.005409:0.004930:0.005409:0.009030:0.004866:0.011535:0.009285:0.003861:0.007562:0.009238:0.004371
plausible differences between the assumptions chosen :@0.536905:0.551424:0.927339:0.551424:0.927339:0.540840:0.536905:0.540840:0.009062:0.003861:0.007722:0.008823:0.006765:0.003654:0.009062:0.003861:0.007977:0.006047:0.009397:0.003861:0.004994:0.004994:0.008153:0.005552:0.008344:0.008855:0.007371:0.008344:0.006765:0.005983:0.009381:0.008344:0.005409:0.011535:0.008344:0.008344:0.009030:0.006111:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.005632:0.008121:0.006573:0.006765:0.009030:0.013737:0.009381:0.005409:0.003861:0.009349:0.009030:0.006765:0.005520:0.007132:0.008727:0.009062:0.006461:0.008153:0.008823:0.004371
and actual future experience could affect future years' :@0.536485:0.566806:0.926201:0.566806:0.926201:0.556222:0.536485:0.556222:0.007802:0.008567:0.008982:0.006461:0.008121:0.007084:0.005409:0.008775:0.008121:0.003638:0.006047:0.004994:0.009030:0.005409:0.009206:0.005552:0.008344:0.005839:0.008344:0.007323:0.009381:0.008344:0.005552:0.003861:0.008073:0.009030:0.007179:0.008344:0.005935:0.007052:0.008982:0.008727:0.003861:0.008903:0.006382:0.008312:0.004994:0.005169:0.008344:0.007690:0.005409:0.004834:0.004994:0.009365:0.005409:0.009285:0.005552:0.008552:0.004786:0.007722:0.008344:0.007945:0.005552:0.006765:0.003669:0.004371
provisions and the ultimate costs of settling claims.:@0.536905:0.582485:0.897839:0.582485:0.897839:0.571900:0.536905:0.571900:0.009158:0.005552:0.008982:0.007387:0.003861:0.006382:0.003861:0.008823:0.008727:0.006557:0.005632:0.007802:0.008647:0.008982:0.006047:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.006047:0.009030:0.003861:0.005409:0.003861:0.013449:0.008121:0.005233:0.008344:0.005504:0.007132:0.009062:0.006765:0.005073:0.006765:0.005488:0.009349:0.004754:0.005712:0.006461:0.008057:0.005201:0.005409:0.003654:0.003861:0.008647:0.009062:0.006382:0.007132:0.003861:0.007818:0.003861:0.013354:0.006765:0.003462
The ranges of the sensitivity tests that follow are based :@0.536065:0.604460:0.931397:0.604460:0.931397:0.593876:0.536065:0.593876:0.008360:0.008775:0.008344:0.005935:0.005552:0.007881:0.008823:0.009397:0.007977:0.006765:0.005664:0.009349:0.004754:0.005201:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.005632:0.006765:0.008344:0.008743:0.006765:0.003654:0.005409:0.003861:0.007435:0.003861:0.005201:0.007722:0.004786:0.005409:0.008105:0.006765:0.005409:0.006557:0.004866:0.005409:0.009365:0.008312:0.005409:0.005345:0.004994:0.009700:0.004036:0.004036:0.009652:0.011918:0.005201:0.007802:0.005297:0.007897:0.006461:0.008903:0.007562:0.006382:0.007802:0.008823:0.004371
on the variability observed  in  past data. They do not :@0.536485:0.620138:0.911220:0.620138:0.911220:0.609553:0.536485:0.609553:0.008567:0.008312:0.006047:0.005409:0.009030:0.008153:0.004866:0.007642:0.008312:0.005552:0.003861:0.008121:0.009381:0.003861:0.003861:0.003861:0.005409:0.007722:0.005393:0.008903:0.009062:0.006557:0.008057:0.005377:0.007387:0.008057:0.009062:0.004371:0.002425:0.003271:0.007642:0.004371:0.002425:0.009062:0.007802:0.006557:0.005201:0.005632:0.009397:0.007897:0.005409:0.007865:0.003462:0.006286:0.008360:0.009030:0.008344:0.007722:0.005249:0.009062:0.009062:0.005632:0.008823:0.008982:0.005201:0.004371
represent the maxima or minima of past observed values, :@0.536905:0.635520:0.947537:0.635520:0.947537:0.624935:0.536905:0.624935:0.005377:0.008057:0.009381:0.005313:0.008344:0.006430:0.008344:0.008695:0.005409:0.005169:0.005409:0.009030:0.008073:0.006047:0.013434:0.008121:0.007323:0.003622:0.013513:0.008121:0.006318:0.008823:0.005297:0.005712:0.013434:0.003861:0.008647:0.003861:0.013354:0.008121:0.006318:0.009349:0.004754:0.005632:0.009381:0.007754:0.006765:0.005153:0.005201:0.009062:0.009158:0.006765:0.007929:0.005377:0.007387:0.008057:0.009158:0.005201:0.007642:0.008121:0.003861:0.009030:0.008344:0.006765:0.003462:0.004371
nor the range of possible outcomes,  but they do capture :@0.536905:0.650902:0.943931:0.650902:0.943931:0.640317:0.536905:0.640317:0.008727:0.008903:0.005297:0.005297:0.005409:0.009030:0.008073:0.006047:0.005377:0.008121:0.008679:0.009397:0.007977:0.006047:0.009349:0.004754:0.005632:0.009158:0.008982:0.006557:0.006461:0.003861:0.008903:0.003861:0.007818:0.005712:0.009349:0.009030:0.005409:0.007371:0.009349:0.013737:0.008344:0.006765:0.003462:0.004371:0.002585:0.009062:0.008727:0.005201:0.005201:0.005409:0.009030:0.008344:0.007722:0.005345:0.008903:0.008823:0.005712:0.007132:0.007802:0.009381:0.005233:0.008823:0.005552:0.008057:0.004371
future values that could  plausibly occur.  Each change :@0.536065:0.666282:0.917389:0.666282:0.917389:0.655698:0.536065:0.655698:0.004994:0.009030:0.005409:0.009285:0.005552:0.008344:0.005329:0.007642:0.008121:0.003861:0.008839:0.008344:0.006765:0.005217:0.005409:0.009365:0.008312:0.005409:0.005345:0.007052:0.008982:0.008727:0.003861:0.008903:0.004371:0.002425:0.009381:0.003861:0.007754:0.009030:0.006589:0.003861:0.009078:0.003861:0.007483:0.005201:0.008727:0.007052:0.007052:0.008567:0.005297:0.003271:0.004371:0.003271:0.007722:0.007722:0.006972:0.008567:0.006461:0.007371:0.009030:0.007945:0.009030:0.009190:0.008344:0.004371
is shown separately,  but in  practice combinations are :@0.536905:0.681664:0.916490:0.681664:0.916490:0.671080:0.536905:0.671080:0.003191:0.005632:0.005632:0.006765:0.009030:0.009349:0.011726:0.009030:0.006509:0.006765:0.008009:0.009158:0.007802:0.005377:0.007897:0.005201:0.008153:0.003861:0.007387:0.003462:0.004371:0.002409:0.009381:0.008679:0.005409:0.005504:0.003271:0.007642:0.004371:0.002521:0.009381:0.005313:0.007897:0.007371:0.005409:0.003685:0.007371:0.007993:0.006047:0.007371:0.009174:0.013737:0.009381:0.003861:0.009030:0.008121:0.005409:0.003861:0.009349:0.009030:0.006765:0.005680:0.007642:0.005121:0.007722:0.004371
possible, as different assumptions can  be correllated.:@0.536905:0.697046:0.911050:0.697046:0.911050:0.686462:0.536905:0.686462:0.009158:0.008982:0.006557:0.006461:0.003861:0.008982:0.003861:0.007977:0.003462:0.006366:0.007722:0.006382:0.005632:0.009397:0.004036:0.004994:0.004994:0.008344:0.005552:0.008344:0.009030:0.005409:0.005648:0.008121:0.006765:0.006765:0.009030:0.013737:0.009158:0.005409:0.003861:0.009349:0.008839:0.006765:0.005249:0.007371:0.007658:0.008823:0.004371:0.002425:0.008567:0.007562:0.005632:0.007371:0.009094:0.005552:0.005361:0.008344:0.003861:0.003669:0.008121:0.005233:0.008344:0.009126:0.003462